SPY Forecast 8/25/16

The S&P 500 index proxy (SPY) been stuck in a tight range due to some historic options imbalances. This is likely to unwind in a highly volatile manner and our previous forecast called for a bullish breakout. This was attempted and rejected on 8/23/16, and price now is exploring back down to range lows. There is still bullish power to be dissipated, so our methodology is indicating to us that this would be a low probability short, which keeps us on the sidelines for this market.