SPY Forecast 9/1/2015

The S&P 500 index proxy (SPY) is currently digesting its recent drop. The odds are muddy, and we are seeing only a 60% chance for a breakdown at this time. Our forecast is for the market to retest the lows, then rally back to begin forming a range on the daily chart. We will wait until the odds are raised through future price action before taking any direct risk in this market.